Get out of the Stock Market and Fixed Income
investments NOW.....
Look
Out in 2012 for a major drop in productivity, jobs and profits.
People can change the volume, the location and the composition of their income, and they can do so
in response to changes in government policies.
It shouldn't surprise anyone that the nine states without an income tax are growing far faster and attracting more
people than are the nine states with the highest income tax rates. People and businesses change the location of income based
on incentives.
Likewise,
who is gobsmacked when they are told that the two wealthiest Americans-Bill Gates and Warren Buffett-hold the bulk of their
wealth in the nontaxed form of unrealized capital gains? The composition of wealth also responds to incentives. And it's also
simple enough for most people to understand that if the government taxes people who work and pays people not to work, fewer
people will work. Incentives matter.
People can also change the timing of when they earn and receive their income in response to government policies. According
to a 2004 U.S. Treasury report, "high income taxpayers accelerated the receipt of wages and year-end bonuses from 1993
to 1992-over $15 billion-in order to avoid the effects of the anticipated increase in the top rate from 31% to 39.6%. At the
end of 1993, taxpayers shifted wages and bonuses yet again to avoid the increase in Medicare taxes that went into effect beginning
1994."
Just remember
what happened to auto sales when the cash for clunkers program ended. Or how about new housing sales when the $8,000 tax credit
ended? It isn't rocket surgery, as the Ivy League professor said.
On or about Jan. 1, 2011, federal, state and local tax rates are scheduled to rise quite sharply.
President George W. Bush's tax cuts expire on that date, meaning that the highest federal personal income tax rate will go
39.6% from 35%, the highest federal dividend tax rate pops up to 39.6% from 15%, the capital gains tax rate to 20% from 15%,
and the estate tax rate to 55% from zero. Lots and lots of other changes will also occur as a result of the sunset provision
in the Bush tax cuts.
Tax
rates have been and will be raised on income earned from off-shore investments. Payroll taxes are already scheduled to rise
in 2013 and the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) will be digging deeper and deeper into middle-income taxpayers. And there's
always the celebrated tax increase on Cadillac health care plans. State and local tax rates are also going up in 2011 as they
did in 2010. Tax rate increases next year are everywhere.
Now, if people know tax rates will be higher next year than they are this year, what will those people
do this year? They will shift production and income out of next year into this year to the extent possible. As a result, income
this year has already been inflated above where it otherwise should be and next year, 2011, income will be lower than it otherwise
should be.
Also, the prospect
of rising prices, higher interest rates and more regulations next year will further entice demand and supply to be shifted
from 2011 into 2010. In my view, this shift of income and demand is a major reason that the economy in 2010 has appeared as
strong as it has. When we pass the tax boundary of Jan. 1, 2011, my best guess is that the train goes off the tracks and we
get our worst nightmare of a severe "double dip" recession.
In 1981, Ronald Reagan-with bipartisan support-began the first phase in a series of tax cuts passed
under the Economic Recovery Tax Act (ERTA), whereby the bulk of the tax cuts didn't take effect until Jan. 1, 1983. Reagan's
delayed tax cuts were the mirror image of President Barack Obama's delayed tax rate increases. For 1981 and 1982 people deferred
so much economic activity that real GDP was basically flat (i.e., no growth), and the unemployment rate rose to well over
10%.
But at the tax boundary
of Jan. 1, 1983 the economy took off like a rocket, with average real growth reaching 7.5% in 1983 and 5.5% in 1984. It has
always amazed me how tax cuts don't work until they take effect. Mr. Obama's experience with deferred tax rate increases will
be the reverse. The economy will collapse in 2011.
Consider corporate profits as a share of GDP. Today, corporate profits as a share of GDP are way
too high given the state of the U.S. economy. These high profits reflect the shift in income into 2010 from 2011. These profits
will tumble in 2011, preceded most likely by the stock market.
In 2010, without any prepayment penalties, people can cash in their Individual Retirement Accounts
(IRAs), Keough deferred income accounts and 401(k) deferred income accounts. After paying their taxes, these deferred income
accounts can be rolled into Roth IRAs that provide after-tax income to their owners into the future. Given what's going to
happen to tax rates, this conversion seems like a no-brainer. The result will be a crash in tax receipts once the surge
is past. If you thought deficits and unemployment have been bad lately, you ain't seen nothing yet.